11 Sep 2020 12:24:43
The MIN-NYK-GSW option that Hollinger originally mentioned holds the most interest to me, because NYK a would pick Ball. Here's a new spin:

GSW GIVES: Wiggins, #2, 2021 MIN 1st, (Iguodala TPE)
GSW GETS: Mitchell Robinson, Randle, Ellington, #8 (James Johnson)

NYK GIVES: #8, Mitchell Robinson, Randle, Ellington
NYK GETS: #1, #17, #33, Wiggins, Omari Spellman

MIN GIVES: #1, #17, #33, Spellman, (Johnson)
MIN GETS: #2, 2021 MIN 1st

Why for GSW? If they want to compete next year with contenders who spent their payroll better, they need to give up something to turn Wiggins into productive salary. Randle and Ellington provide some vets, while the star of the deal, Mitchell Robinson, learns on the job. Randle and Ellington are on partially guaranteed deals in 2022, so they may provide trade flexibility, along with the #8 pick, and James Johnson, who provides expiring salary matching trade fodder for acquiring one more good piece.

Why for NYK? They realize they need to add something significant to #8 to get the #1 pick, and between Barrett, Mitchell and their unprotected 2021 pick, they choose Mitchell. They expect Ball to make mistakes as a rookie, and moving Randle and Mitchell makes it likely their 2021 pick has a lot of value. The #1 pick guarantees they get their man - if MIN uses it on Ball themselves, or trades it to a team that does, NYK's plan falls apart. They add additional young prospects in #17, #33, and Spellman, who should get some minutes with Randle and Mitchell leaving, Wiggins is a tough pill the following two years, but Randle/Ellington/Mitchell cost that much next year. This is the rebuild mode (Ball, picks, keep the 2021 NYK pick)

Why for MIN? This seems like a no-brainer. It's doubtful (I think?) that they were picking Ball, so they get value from going to #1 to #2 without their player going off the draft board (even if it just to trade it). They give up three prospects to reclaim their 2021, which frees them from any Stepian issues if they want to use a pick for some future trade. This create roster space, the the TPE is more valuable to MIN than Johnson.

11 Sep 2020 13:50:03
I think Minnesota should keep either pick 17 or 33, and get their 2021 2nd round pick pack.

11 Sep 2020 14:00:41
Love it.

11 Sep 2020 16:28:16
Ä°t is very bad for gsw. They are getting more salary than they send. Wiggins is better than ellington randle Johnson combine. You can say he is overpayed but randle and Johnson are very overpayed too. The only piece that matter is Robinson and he is not good enough jump 6 spot in draft. And gsw send Minnesota pick too. Gsw won't give two very valuable pick to get worse player than Wiggins. They will trade them a star player or very good young player. Not for nyk crap.

11 Sep 2020 17:11:15
Hey shrinkdinky, I would not give up Robinson for Ball. horrible for NY.

11 Sep 2020 18:25:30
I don’t see any reason why the Warriors would do that. Robinson is no where close to being a defensive anchor on a good team and that Twolves pick is worth more than the 8th pick because of how the draft classes stack up.

11 Sep 2020 20:34:27
It shocks me that people are starting to say that Wiggins isn’t that bad a contract, now that he’s wearing a Warriors uniform. It would cost one of those two GSW picks just to get to neutral. Wiggins is guaranteed $29.5, $31.6, $33.6. With this amount of bad money on the books, you can’t equate him as simply a bad contract at the level of Randle ($18.9, $4 mil guaranteed the following year), or Ellington ($8 mil expiring) . Even combined, the Wiggins deal has $54 freakin’ more million attached!

11 Sep 2020 20:38:28
rkenne, regarding the drafts, I wrote this a few days ago elsewhere. It might give you some food for though on the valuation of any future pick.

———-

Incidentally, while everyone focuses on the predictions that the 2021 draft will be great, there are four factors that reduce the value of a pick from any future draft

1. Accuracy of Predicting. We are asking experts to project how high school kids will do in the NBA. As Texas Chuck pointed out, Shabazz Mohammed was predicted to be a sure fire star.

2. Predicting a Teams Final Record. Last year at this time, did anyone know GSW would have the worst record? Did anyone predict #2-5 would be only one win apart? Remember when we all though the Kings pick that BOS had was incredibly valuable?

3. Lottery. Even if you knew which high school prospects would be stars, and a magic genie told you the final standings, you would need another genie to tell you who wins the lottery. The top 4 selections usually contain the most likely players to become stars, so winning the new, flatter, lottery is critical.

4. Time. Having to wait for an asset reduces it’s value — and not just in banks. Using the Knicks example, they could start hyping LaMelo to fans tomorrow after a trade, and start selling merchandise and raising season ticket prices. Or they can say, “Please buy a poster of our lightly protected 2021 pick. ”

I am not trying to say that the value of the the top players in 2020 is always better than 2021. I am saying that people that have heard that the 2021 draft is better, and extrapolate that individual players in 2020 are not worth 2021 picks, are going too far, and neglecting several pretty significant factors.

11 Sep 2020 20:49:42
I like this deal for GSW because it helps them now, and also gives them help in the future, when their stars begin to age out. Right now, the Warriors don’t ask their center to do a lot, but Robinson can do enough already, I expect him to get much better over time, especially if the Warriors can get Draymond in his ear early.

The Warriors have always treated the center position as a cheap throw away, and it’s worked for them, paying talent at the other positions. I like Mitchell because they still get to be cheap, get good enough production now (rather than a true rookie with the #2), and also get to use those minutes for access to young upside.

11 Sep 2020 21:06:28
Last thing - I’ve gone on too long - but the real question for me isn’t GSW, it’s NYK.

With all respect to shizzee, whether he would trade Robinson for Ball doesn’t concern me; whether Leon Rose would make the trade does. A few weeks ago, we heard rumors that Rose and Ball had mutual interest. Ball makes a splash for him as the new GM, sells tickets and merchandise. Wiggins changed agents last December to CAA, Rose’s agency. And of course, Thibs was his client as well before he hired him.

I am not a fan of Thibs screaming at kids and antiquated systems, I’m not sure they will work with the modern nba and modern players. But I give him credit for the way he tried to handle Wiggins. He had seen Wiggins wander through seasons, scoring a lot of points, but Statistically having a very net negative affect on his teams. Thibs tried to engage him the first year by giving him the ball (point-Wiggins), and the next season, he tried making him the third option, hoping Jimmy Butler would inspire him. Neither worked, and some of that blame has to be on Wiggins.

Anyway, if Leon Rose is interested in Wiggins, maybe over Thibs reservations, he still needs to come up with a way to get the #6 up to the #1. LaMelo’s floor may be low, but his ceiling is high, and the nba runs on stars, not Mitchell Robinson’s or #6 picks. I think he’d have three choices to get there: Barrett, Robinson, or a future NYK pick. If he’s putting the ball in Ball’s hands as a rookie, I think he keeps the pick, and keeps Barrett over Robinson, to take a shot at a star.

11 Sep 2020 21:15:56
I want to see Wiggins play in an GS jersey before they give up that package.
Minny was the wrong team for him, i want to see him play wit Klay and Steph. If it fails the GS run is over and they better keep the draft picks.

They should only trade Wiggins and the picks for a star player.

11 Sep 2020 23:12:46
Shrink, I don’t think the Warriors are getting much win now talent. I don’t like Wiggins and think he has negative value, but he’s better than Randle and Ellington and he sort of fits with what they need a bit.

As for the draft stuff, I’m not speculating on thinking next years Minnesota pick is work more. A handful of credible media members have said that’s what they’re being told.

The warriors are giving up 2 legitimate assets, getting 2 assets back that are slightly worse and probably getting worse as a basketball team in this deal.

More than that they’re giving up a ton of their roster flexibility with the picks and Wiggins contract going out the door.

There will be moves available that will actually help them.

11 Sep 2020 23:46:16
You are saying that Wiggins has 92 million on his contract. But gsw getting 45 million salary with this trade and randle has one more year on his contract. Gsw is tax paying team. Gsw takes 17 million more salary. Ä°t affects 45 million on tax money. So they are sending two very valuable picks. Not getting good players. And spend 60 million more money this year with this trade. Yeah it is really good for gsw.

12 Sep 2020 14:56:15
Randles second year is only guaranteed for $4 mil. Wiggins is guaranteed for $31.6. In Year 3, Wiggins is paid $33.6. Randle is off the books. So yes, tell me again about luxury taxes?

And the reason for the salary difference in year one is turning the Iguodala $17.2 TPE $17.2 into a $16 mil player you can trade and aggregate. Hopefully you read my post today listing the quality players that TPE could become if you turn it into a tradable player. However, if you are saying that the Warriors were going to let that TPE go to waste and not use it, then I agree it would save them the $40 mil one-year sting. Do you really think that is their plan?

In the end, they are deciding whether they want to spend the future money on Wiggins for three years at $30, OR one year using the TPE (which they would likely do anyway), then a LOWER salary going forward with the TPE guy ($20 mil), Mitchell (rookie scale), If you are concerned about the tax, this is a better way to handle the future, and meanwhile improves the Warriors talent.

12 Sep 2020 15:08:21
Rkenne. Wiggins looks good scoring points and playing a position of need, but the guy has never had a positive BPM in any season. He is inefficient, plays poor defense, and that’s why his teams do worse whenever he is on the floor.

On the other hand, Mitchell Robinson helps a team. He has had a positive BPM in both his seasons, which is very unusual for a rookie.

Whatever production the Warriors get out of Randle and Ellington in Year One is gravy. Their real value is that they are expiring (well, Randle is owed $4 mil) while Wiggins is on the books for $65 million after they are gone, Losing the Wiggins salary allows GSW to afford to use the Iguodala TPE/ James Johnson without reeling in luxury taxes.

12 Sep 2020 15:53:31
Dont u understand? With your trade gsw salary will be 17 million higher and tax will be more than 40 million. Nearly 60 million for this year. So they can keep Wiggins and use 60 million to pay him next two years.

12 Sep 2020 18:02:11
Look buddy, I don’t think you understand my posts, and I’ve probably been doing cap/ lux projections for twenty years more than you have, But I will try to simplify it down even farther.

In Year One: If GSW does the trade, they add $17 mil in payroll. If GSW doesn’t do the trade, and USES the $17 mil Iguodala TPE (Which they will), they add $17 mil in payroll.

It’s the same thing. If you want to look at the trade and remove the Iguodala for Johnson piece to understand it better, that’s fine with me. I appreciate you emphasizing the lux tax, because many fan posters overlook it, but you would be talking about the same lux taxes on the same payroll.

In Year Two and Three: if GSW does the trade, they have a salary for the TPE guy, Randle and Ellington basically expire, and they pay Mitchell Robinson. Let’s say, $17, $4, $0 and $1.8, = $23 mil payroll

If they don’t do the trade they pay TPE Guy and Wiggins. $17 + $33 = $50 mil in payroll.

I don’t think GSW wants to pay repeater taxes on $50 mil, and a good part of the value of this deal is financial - getting off the last two years of Wiggins deal.


Slow down, read it through. You are not processing all the info. Cheers.

12 Sep 2020 18:24:11
Maybe there’s an even easier way to help you understand. Let’s make it a two part trade, and remove Johnson and the TPE completely until stage 2.

#2 > #8
2021 MIN 1st > Mitchell Robinson

However

Wiggins.

12 Sep 2020 19:22:14
I can understand you very well. wiggins is better than those nyk crap. 2 pick is better than 8. robinson doesn't worth top ten pick. gsw get nothing in this trade. nothing nothing nothing. they will be repeater tax team next even after your trade. because they will pay 110 million to curry thompson and green next year. not paying tax isn't an option for golden state. and I am not talking about next year buddy.

gsw send: 29,5 million

gsw take: 45,5 million.

16 million more salary this year and 40 million more tax this year.

how can u don't understand it is basic math.

tpe doesn't count on salary cap if you don't use it. open trade rules slary cap rules and read.

12 Sep 2020 20:43:55
Do you know what a trade exception is?

12 Sep 2020 20:52:43
I appreciate that you are concerned about lux taxes - it’s something too many internet posters don’t emphasize. But I don’t know how basic get with you. Apparently half my earlier post didn’t register, So I will try again.

If you understand what a TPE is, let’s just eliminate the part of the trade that contains the TPE for Johnson. Can you understand that, or did I lose you?

Ok, then the deal is Wiggins, #2, 2021 MIN 1st for #8, Robinson, Randle, Ellington. With me so far? For GSW:

#2 > #8
2021 MIN 1st > Robinson
But
Wiggins.

12 Sep 2020 20:58:29
And, I said that I believe it is nearly a sure thing that a championship contender like GSW does not use the Iguodala TPE, which they gave up assets to acquire

Either you didn’t read it, or didn’t understand it, but saying things like, “maybe you don’t understand basic math“, or “read the trade rules” is childish and insulting. For the record, the CBAFAQ that you are probably reading was written by Larry Coon, and I helped him improve a few sections, since I’ve known him for a decade.

Grow up.

12 Sep 2020 21:00:03
And I love your silly, “oh I’m not talking about (finances after) next year, ”

Guess what? The actual GSW front office is going to factor that in. You should realize that,

12 Sep 2020 21:39:05
Interesting note about this site for everyone. You can use a greater than sign >, but two less than signs will cut off your post.

Asdenam, your financial arguments are simply between not using the TPE, and using it. The Johnson contract (or whatever the single biggest expiring you can use it on), is simply using it more effectively. Personally, I think nearly everyone considers using the TPE to be a “done deal” for a championship contender, especially since GSW gave up assets to get that TPE.

It is foolish though to judge a trade and also ignore the financial impact Wiggins will have two and three years from now, especially if you are aware of the lux taxes. I feel like you just want to rile me up, which you succeeded at. Bravo.

And for the part that keeps getting cut off, I agree #2 and 2021 MIN 1st is worth more than #6 and Mitchell Robinson. However Wiggins is worth far less than expirings, and would take a major asset or two to move unless he suddenly becomes a positive player and on a cheaper contract. So far, in seven seasons, he’s only been negative, but you can always hope he suddenly turns it around.

13 Sep 2020 04:45:56
I didn't say they shouldn't use it. They should use it on good players not for this crap. Ä°f they pay 110 million tax and giving 2 very valuable picks, they should get good players, not overpayed bench players.